There’s an old saying that “politics is show business for ugly people.” But in 2025, the geopolitical stage feels more like reality TV, except with nuclear submarines and oil markets on the line. And in our latest episode of “Egos and Escalation,” the drama comes courtesy of a Truth Social–Telegram feud between two of the world’s most cartoonishly unpredictable political figures: former U.S. President Donald Trump and former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, now reduced to Putin’s glorified meme manager.

The spat began, as these things often do, with a dumb comment and an overblown reaction. Medvedev, basking in his usual twilight haze of irrelevance, took a shot at Trump’s comments about ending the war in Ukraine quickly. He called Trump’s bluster a “parody of diplomacy,” and in true Medvedev fashion, spiced it up with jabs about Biden and “Western weakness.”

Trump, never one to resist a spotlight or a fight, especially one that might make him look like the tough guy, responded not with words, but with nuclear posturing. He publicly declared the repositioning of U.S. nuclear submarines closer to Russia, throwing fuel on the fire and sending diplomats and market analysts into a minor tailspin.

And then something strange happened. Oil prices dipped. Russian markets wobbled. And the U.S., under Trump’s impulsive showmanship, took a surprisingly serious step: it announced tariffs on Russian oil clients and sanctions against Russia’s shadow fleet, the rogue armada of ships that help Moscow dodge oil sanctions and fund its war machine. Suddenly, a petty online feud had real consequences, ones that ripple across Europe, the Baltics, and global energy networks.

Ukrainian officials welcomed it and praised Trump’s willingness to press down on maritime loopholes and push secondary sanctions targeting buyers like India and China.

The kicker? Medvedev, after years of worshipping Trump like a MAGA surrogate abroad, immediately switched his tone, suddenly calling Trump a “threat to global stability,” before awkwardly walking it back. It was a rare moment where the Kremlin’s snark machine malfunctioned. Trump, by accident or design, had poked a pressure point Moscow didn’t want touched: the oil flow. And for once, he may have actually hit it.

What we’re witnessing is a window into how digital bluster turns into global tension. How performative masculinity in politics, especially among the authoritarian-adjacent, can twist policy into farce. And how, even in Trump’s chaotic orbit, there are moments when impulse stumbles into effectiveness.

In practical terms: a Twitter spat cascaded through energy markets, forced diplomatic repositioning, and triggered sanctions planning.

Markets are fickle, especially when geopolitical drama spikes. Traders interpreted the scale-up of U.S. military assets as a signal to hedge safe. Oil prices fell as speculation grew that Trump’s showmanship might have teeth. More than symbolism, the threat of real sanctions emerged, specifically targeting the Russian shadow fleet, a murky network of tankers carrying Russia’s sanctioned oil and funding the war machine, as well as posing a serious threat to national security of many EU countries, including the Baltic and Nordic states.

The shadow fleet is estimated to total between 1,300 and 1,600 vessels, roughly half of them oil tankers sailing under flags of convenience or anonymous owners. About 50% of Russia's sanctioned oil exports pass through the Baltic Sea, making the region a focal point for EU enforcement and a target for sabotage and hybrid warfare. Trump’s sanctions threat marked the first time his administration publicly declared intention to clamp down on this fleet.

So here we are: an online tantrum spiraled into a submarine deployment, oil prices dipped, sanctions surfaced, and even Russia’s shadowy oil tankers suddenly found themselves under the spotlight. All because two men with more ego than diplomacy decided to test their manhood online.

Medvedev tried to play the part of the alpha nationalist, and Trump, never one to be out-spectacled, flexed with nuclear subs like it was a game of Risk. But what’s truly ironic is this: behind all the macho posturing and bluster, actual policy happened, and even Russia’s “untouchable” maritime network got touched.

So here we are, watching a nuclear-armed power spiral into social media rants while the guy who once winked at Putin now preps economic warfare against him. History doesn’t repeat itself, but it sure does love a cringe-inducing sequel.