Ukraine can still win this war. That sentence shouldn’t be controversial, but in much of Western Europe, it now feels like a radical statement. Defeatist narratives have crept into policy circles and the press, reinforcing the illusion that Russia is somehow destined to win and that Europe’s only role is to manage the fallout. This is both false and dangerous.

There is a road to victory for Ukraine, but only if Europe accepts the truth that this is now our war, too.

Ukraine is not merely defending its own territory. It is holding the line for all of Europe. Every Russian drone shot down over Kharkiv is one less threat flying toward Vilnius, Warsaw, or even Berlin in the near future. The idea that this war is contained is a fantasy. The Baltics could be next, and the consequences would be catastrophic for European security and stability.

This is why the time for half-measures is over. The European Union and its member states must provide full-spectrum military support to Ukraine. Send what is needed: ammunition, air defense systems, long-range weapons, drones. Move beyond peacetime procurement processes and ramp up defense production at scale. This isn’t escalation, but a way to stop a war before it spreads.

Sanctions, too, must evolve. What we’ve implemented so far is not enough. Russia continues to export oil and LNG through shadow fleets, laundering its energy through third countries, meaning that we are feeding the very war machine we claim to oppose. The EU must move to ban all Russian energy imports, enforce secondary sanctions, and dismantle the logistics that enable these trade routes. Every euro spent on Russian oil is a bullet aimed at a Ukrainian soldier or a drone targeted at a Ukrainian civilian.

Meanwhile, the EU must confront a hard internal truth: Hungary’s veto power is endangering European unity and security, and to some degree, so is Slovakia’s. Viktor Orbán has repeatedly blocked or delayed support for Ukraine, undermining joint decisions in service of his Kremlin-aligned agenda. The EU has the tools to respond. Article 4 of the EU Treaty allows for consultations when a member state believes another is compromising the union’s security. It is time to use it.

Western European countries in particular must undergo a paradigm shift. For years, the guiding logic has been: avoid escalation, preserve stability, and protect the economy. But that logic has failed. Further Russian aggression brings instability. Instability brings economic shocks. Pretending we can shield ourselves from this war by looking away is not strategy, it’s denial. The path to economic recovery runs through Ukrainian victory, not a frozen conflict or negotiated surrender.

Too many EU leaders speak eloquently about unity and defending European values, but their actions suggest otherwise. France and Italy, for example, have allowed many of their companies to continue operating in Russia. Remember the supermarket Tucker Carlson visited during his propaganda trip to Moscow, and was so impressed about? It wasn’t Russian—it was French. France, Belgium, and Spain continue to buy significant amounts of Russian energy. Italy and France, meanwhile, continue to export luxury goods to Russia, helping Moscow’s elite and middle class maintain a sense of normalcy and detachment from the brutal war their country is waging. The military aid these countries provide to Ukraine, though publicized, remains limited and far from sufficient given the scale of the threat. These countries speak the language of solidarity while continuing business as usual with a genocidal regime.

Let’s be realistic: the United States is no longer truly supporting Ukraine. Military aid is stalled, political will has collapsed, and Ukraine has become a partisan bargaining chip in Washington. For at least the next four years, Europe must operate under the assumption that it stands alone. If Ukraine is to survive and win, it will be because Europe chose to stand up, not because America came to the rescue.

We also need to take defense spending seriously. NATO has committed to a target of 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% allocated to core military capabilities and 1.5% to broader security needs like infrastructure, logistics, and cybersecurity. But even the previous NATO commitment of 2% would have been enough to deter Russia—if it had been met consistently, backed by urgency, unity, and political will. History offers a clear warning: in the 1930s, Britain spent around 2% of GDP on defense. By 1938, it had risen to 6.9%, and during World War II, it soared beyond 50%. If Russia ever tests NATO directly, spending will surge again. The real question is whether we invest now in preparedness, or pay later in panic.

As Garry Kasparov said back in 2014, the price of stopping a dictator always goes up.

Victory is not out of reach. But it will take more than uplifting speeches or finger-pointing at the United States. It demands political courage, material commitment, and a clear-eyed rejection of comforting illusions. Ukraine still has the will to fight. Now Europe must prove it has the will to help them win.

The road to victory runs through Brussels, Berlin, and Paris just as much as it runs through Kyiv.

Let’s stop pretending this isn’t our war. It is. And the time to act like it is now.